>>From: Darlene Napora Shuley '69

This was written by the Former Director of Military
History at the USAF Academy. I believe it is well worth
reading. 

14 September 2001 

Dear friends and fellow Americans, 

Like everyone else in this great country, I am reeling
from last week's attack on our sovereignty. But unlike
some, I am not reeling from surprise. As a career soldier
and a student and teacher of military history, I have a
different perspective and I think you should hear it.
This war will be won or lost by the American citizens,
not diplomats, politicians or soldiers. Let me briefly
explain. 

In spite of what the media, and even our own government
is telling us, this act was not committed by a group of
mentally deranged fanatics. To dismiss them as such would
be among the gravest of mistakes. This attack was
committed by a ferocious, intelligent and dedicated
adversary. Don't take this the wrong way. I don't admire
these men and I deplore their tactics, but I respect
their capabilities. The many parallels that have been
made with the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor are
apropos. Not only because it was a brilliant sneak attack
against a complacent America, but also because we may
well be pulling our new adversaries out of caves 30 years
after we think this war is over, just like my father's
generation had to do with the formidable Japanese in the
years following WW II. 

These men hate the United States with all of their being,
and we must not underestimate the power of their moral
commitment. Napoleon, perhaps the world's greatest
combination of soldier and statesman, stated the moral is
to the physical as three is to one. Patton thought the
Frenchman underestimated its importance and said moral
conviction was five times more important in battle than
physical strength. Our enemies are willing - better said
anxious -- to give their lives for their cause. How
committed are we, America? And for how long? 

In addition to demonstrating great moral conviction, the
recent attack demonstrated a mastery of some of the basic
fundamentals (sic) of warfare taught to most military
officers worldwide, namely simplicity, security and
surprise. When I first heard rumors that some of these
men may have been trained at our own Air War College, it
made perfect sense to me. This was not a random act of
violence, and we can expect the same sort of military
competence to be displayed in the battle to come. This
war will escalate, with a good portion of it happening
right here in the good ol' US of A. 

These men will not go easily into the night. They do not
fear us. We must not fear them. 

In spite of our overwhelming conventional strength as the
world's only superpower (a truly silly term), we are the
underdog in this fight. As you listen to the carefully
scripted rhetoric designed to prepare us for the march
for war, please realize that America is not equipped or
seriously trained for the battle ahead. To be certain,
our soldiers are much better than the enemy, and we have
some excellent counter-terrorist organizations; but they
are mostly trained for hostage rescues, airfield
seizures, or the occasional body snatch, (which may come
in handy). We will be fighting a war of annihilation,
because if their early efforts are any indication, our
enemy is ready and willing to die to the last man.
Eradicating the enemy will be costly and time consuming.
They have already deployed their forces in as many as 20
countries, and are likely living the lives of everyday
citizens. Simply put, our soldiers will be tasked with a
search and destroy mission on multiple foreign
landscapes, and the public must be patient and supportive
until the strategy and tactics can be worked out. 

For the most part, our military is still in the process
of redefining itself and presided over by men and women
who grew up with - and were promoted because they
excelled in - Cold War doctrine, strategy and tactics.
This will not be linear warfare; there will be no clear
centers of gravity to strike with high technology
weapons. Our vast technological edge will certainly be
helpful, but it will not be decisive. Perhaps the perfect
metaphor for the coming battle was introduced by the
terrorists themselves aboard the hijacked aircraft --
this will be a knife fight, and it will be won or lost by
the ingenuity and will of citizens and soldiers, not by
software or smart bombs. We must also be patient with our
military leaders. 

Unlike Americans who are eager to put this messy time
behind us, our adversaries have time on their side, and
they will use it. They plan to fight a battle of
attrition, hoping to drag the battle out until the
American public loses its will to fight. This might be
difficult to believe in this euphoric time of flag waving
and patriotism, but it is generally acknowledged that
America lacks the stomach for a long fight. We need only
look as far back as Vietnam, when North Vietnamese
General Vo Nguyen Giap (also a military history teacher)
defeated the United States of America without ever
winning a major tactical battle. American soldiers who
marched to war cheered on by flag waving Americans in
1965 were reviled and spat upon less than three years
later when they returned. Although we hope that Usama Bin
Laden is no Giap, he is certain to understand and employ
the concept. We can expect not only large doses of pain
like the recent attacks, but also less audacious sand-in-
the-gears tactics, ranging from livestock infestations to
attacks at water supplies and power distribution
facilities. These attacks are designed to hit us in our
comfort zone forcing the average American to pay more and
play less and eventually eroding our resolve. But it can
only work if we let it. 

It is clear to me that the will of the American citizenry
- you and I - is the center of gravity the enemy has
targeted. It will be the fulcrum upon which victory or
defeat will turn. He believes us to be soft, impatient,
and self-centered. He may be right, but if so, we must
change. The Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz, (the
most often quoted and least read military theorist in
history), says that there is a remarkable trinity of war
that is composed of the (1) will of the people, (2) the
political leadership of the government, and (3) the
chance and probability that plays out on the field of
battle, in that order. Every American citizen was in the
crosshairs of last Tuesday's attack, not just those that
were unfortunate enough to be in the World Trade Center
or Pentagon (or on board one of those planes, Ed.). The
will of the American people will decide this war. If we
are to win, it will be because we have what it takes to
persevere through a few more hits, learn from our
mistakes, improvise, and adapt. If we can do that, we
will eventually prevail. 

Everyone I've talked to in the past few days has shared a
common frustration, saying in one form or another "I just
wish I could do something!" You are already doing it.
Just keep faith in America, and continue to support your
President and military, and the outcome is certain. If we
fail to do so, the outcome is equally certain. 

God Bless America 

Dr. Tony Kern, Lt. Col., USAF (Ret) Former Director of
Military History, USAF Academy